The effects of Hindsight Bias on Incident Investigations

You may be aware that Hastam has been involved in the investigation of some of the principal safety incidents in the UK in the last decade – for
example, the explosions at Port Talbot and Buncefield, and the rail crash at
Potters Bar. Professor Richard Booth was involved in all three
investigations and has now written on the importance of Hindsight Bias and
a contentious, albeit personal, account of its effects on the investigation
of the Buncefield explosion. While everyone ‘knows’ about Hindsight Bias,
its manifestations are much more detrimental, multi-faceted and subtle than
they might at first appear. Richard’s analysis is underpinned by a study of
the seminal research literature which takes the story into unexpected
directions.

Professor Booth’s discussion about the events leading up to the explosion
and his critique of the investigation and the impact of Hindsight Bias on
the conclusions are an education in themselves. In addition, his
explanation of the difference between root causes and underlying causal
factors may help you
to ensure that you dig deeper in future
investigations. The paper of course also alerts you to the probability that
everyone involved in incident investigations, despite their best efforts,
may be biased by hindsight.

Here are the links for you to download the paper (full or shortened version) and read it for
yourself:

http://www.hastam.co.uk/publications/2012/hindsight-bias-short-01-2012.pdf

http://www.hastam.co.uk/publications/2012/hindsight-bias-full-2012.pdf

If you would like to learn more, Professor Richard Booth is speaking on this subject at this year’s IOSH Conference in Manchester, March 6th and 7th. He will also be available for a chat, along with other Hastam colleagues, at the Hastam Stand. We look forward to seeing you there.

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CHASE history

CHASE-I book and sample page

CHASE-I

Hastam’s CHASE health and safety evaluation system has a long history, starting life as two books in the late 1980s: CHASE-I for small organisations and CHASE-II for larger ones.

The first computerised version appeared in 1989 (called C-CHASE) and this developed over the years into more flexible versions (S-CHASE in the early 1990s and CHASE for Windows in 1996).

This latter version has been the CHASE mainstay since then, adding more functions over the years.

However, many organisations are now looking for software that does not require installation on their own computers but, instead, only require users to go to a web page in their Internet browser.

With this in mind, Hastam has now launched a new version of CHASE (CHASE IV) which is hosted on a server and accessible via a URL from anywhere. At the same time we have revised our 18001 audit modules and are about to release a fully revised version of the H&S Legal Compliance module.

There are more details in a document you can download from our website.

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Hastam Thought Leadership Conference – March 28th at Derby

Behavioural Safety – fact and fiction

What are the facts and fictions regarding Behavioural Safety? Is it a panacea, a quick fix or part of the longer term safety journey? What methodologies really work over the long-term? Should organisations be investing in behavioural safety or is there a more worthwhile process? Is there a common solution or at least some guiding principles? If these topics are of interest to you please join us and have your say.

There will be four principal speakers. Each presentation will be followed by the opportunity to question the speakers and debate the issues they raise.

Professor Andrew Hale – ‘Getting involved’
Andrew will report on the research conducted in Holland which looked at the effectiveness of cultural and behavioural based interventions and summarise the results. His conclusions may hold some interesting surprises.

Professor Richard Booth – ‘The forgotten Standard’
Richard will talk about the international standard for behavioural based interventions. Few people seem to know this standard exists and what can be gained from using it.

Robin Chaplin – ‘The Emperors new clothes’
Robin will use his experience as a health and safety director in three leading UK companies to demonstrate the ‘behavioural safety trap’

Mike Vyvyan – ‘Getting real’
As a psychologist and management consultant Mike has been involved in Behavioural Safety interventions for over 15 years. He will present the case for a radical reframing of Behavioural Safety to grapple with the realities of safety management and the practicalities of fostering sustainable improvement.

The cost of the conference will be from £100, including lunch and refreshments. The venue will be the Hallmark Hotel, Midland Road, Derby, DE1 2SQ. Directions will be provided with the booking form. To book your place(s) please enter your details on our conference page and we will send you a booking form and directions.

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The importance of planning in health and safety

Planning in health and safety (H&S) is a process well specified in BS OHSAS 18001 but it is our experience that H&S professionals rarely follow this well specified process. Planning tends to be reactive in response to problems arising, rather than proactive in the long term interests of the organisation.

The BS OHSAS 18001 process includes the following elements: risk assessment, legal requirements, other H&S requirements, planning process, objectives and programmes.

BS OHSAS 18001 planning process

BS OHSAS 18001 planning process

Risk assessment
We have found that organisations do not make effective use of risk assessment. For example, the definition of risk is unclear so that people are basing their assessments on different views of what constitutes likelihood and severity.

Legal requirements
We have yet to come across an organisation that measures its compliance with H&S legislation.

Other health and safety requirements
Our experience here is that the majority of H&S professionals have not even considered incorporating other H&S requirements in their safety management system. This is despite the fact that large numbers of organisations sign up to certification schemes that have H&S requirements and that in many organisations the corporate body and/or customers impose mandatory H&S requirements.

Planning process
The most straightforward planning process is described in the next two sections.

Objectives
Setting objectives involves establishing where we are now and using a creative thinking process to come up with ways to improve. The initial objectives are straightforward:

  • establish how well we are carrying out risk assessments,
  • identify the full range of H&S legislation with which we have to comply,
  • establish how well we are complying with this legislation,
  • establish what, if any, other H&S requirements apply, and
  • establish how well we are complying with these requirements.

Programmes
They should all be set out in the form of standards, that is, who should do what, when and with what result. Vague statements like ‘risk assessments will be reviewed annually’ are completely inadequate. An example of a more appropriate statement would be ‘all first line managers will review their risk assessments annually and make revisions as necessary’.

Conclusion
We see a lot of reactive planning – at its worst it’s panic planning. What we do not see is planning as set out in BS OHSAS 18001.

Usually organisations have unrecognised fundamental problems with their risk assessment procedure and we can help with these if you want to set a proactive objective of improving your organisation’s risk assessment.

In addition, organisations usually have a poor idea of the details of the H&S legislation that applies to them or how well they are complying with this legislation. We can also help with this – our Legal Register service will keep you up to date with the legislation that applies to you, and our CHASE Legal Modules service will enable you to measure how well you are complying.

Please get in touch with Liz Shuttleworth if you think we can help with any aspect of your H&S planning.

NB. For the full version of this document please click here: http://www.hastam.co.uk/publications/2012/hs-planning-01-2012.pdf

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