You may be aware that Hastam has been involved in the investigation of some of the principal safety incidents in the UK in the last decade – for
example, the explosions at Port Talbot and Buncefield, and the rail crash at
Potters Bar. Professor Richard Booth was involved in all three
investigations and has now written on the importance of Hindsight Bias and
a contentious, albeit personal, account of its effects on the investigation
of the Buncefield explosion. While everyone ‘knows’ about Hindsight Bias,
its manifestations are much more detrimental, multi-faceted and subtle than
they might at first appear. Richard’s analysis is underpinned by a study of
the seminal research literature which takes the story into unexpected
directions.
Professor Booth’s discussion about the events leading up to the explosion
and his critique of the investigation and the impact of Hindsight Bias on
the conclusions are an education in themselves. In addition, his
explanation of the difference between root causes and underlying causal
factors may help you to ensure that you dig deeper in future
investigations. The paper of course also alerts you to the probability that
everyone involved in incident investigations, despite their best efforts,
may be biased by hindsight.
Here are the links for you to download the paper (full or shortened version) and read it for
yourself:
http://www.hastam.co.uk/publications/2012/hindsight-bias-short-01-2012.pdf
http://www.hastam.co.uk/publications/2012/hindsight-bias-full-2012.pdf
If you would like to learn more, Professor Richard Booth is speaking on this subject at this year’s IOSH Conference in Manchester, March 6th and 7th. He will also be available for a chat, along with other Hastam colleagues, at the Hastam Stand. We look forward to seeing you there.

